Do the math

Though it pains me to recommend anything from the New York Times after their deplorable behavior through this election, their website has an excellent electoral-college calculator. http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/ Apart from all the statistics you might ever (or never) care about, if you click on The Presidential Race on the left, and then on Presidential Calculator, you can put each state in whatever column you wish and see how the Electoral College vote will pan out. I prefer the Electoral Votes view (click this button right above Minnesota), which scales each state according to the number of Electoral College votes. They even add "partial split" options for those states which can adjust their EC votes proportionally to voter response: Maine, Nebraska and Colorado (though the split-the-votes bill seems doomed to failure in Colorado). On election night, I expect to have this open so I can do my own forecasts on the country.